Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice: Using Excel, VBA and @RISK

Description:

Transform your financial models from “best-guess” estimates into robust, risk-aware decision tools. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in-depth guide designed for risk managers and analysts who need to quantify uncertainty. It bridges the gap between theoretical statistics and practical business application, teaching you how to build professional-grade simulation models using the tools you already know: Excel and VBA.

Why This Book is a “Must-Have” for Quants:

• Technical Depth: Covers over 20 probability distributions, explaining not just how to use them, but why to choose one over another.

• Practical Implementation: Provides detailed guidance on building simulations using both custom VBA macros and the industry-standard @RISK add-in.

• Real-World Models: Uses nearly 100 practical examples—ranging from budgeting and forecasting to corporate valuation and portfolio optimization.

• Decision-Focused: Beyond the math, it explores the psychological biases in decision-making and how to present hard data to business leaders effectively.

Key Topics Covered:

• Key stages of the general risk assessment process and risk mapping.

• Principles of simulation methods and their relationship to sensitivity and scenario analysis.

• Measuring Risk: Using statistics of distributions (Mean, Median, Mode, Skewness, and Kurtosis).

• Dependency Relationships: Modelling correlations and using Copulas.

• Excel & VBA: Creating user-defined functions and automated simulation loops.

• Optimization: Finding the best business choices in the presence of uncertainty.

Key Specifications:

• ISBN-13: 9781118904053

• Author: Michael Rees

• Publisher: Wiley (The Wiley Finance Series)

• Format: Physical Hardcover